Marketing Memos

November 20, 2007

Microsoft Mirage

I don’t often beat on Microsoft or their executives. After all, they are a strong marketing organization and good people to do business with once you suppress your gag reflex to the smell of sulfur leaking out from under Steve Balmer’s office door.

But when I see a Microsoft executive spinning out of control, then I ample reason for rhetorical target practice.

Bill Hilf, Microsoft’s Windows Server GM, said something in an interview with Info Week that defied historical evidence, rational thought, and deepened even my suspicions about Microsoft’s marketing integrity (yes, I know, they have none). To wit:

When people buy commercial software, really what they’re buying is a guarantee … there’s someone you can call up, and if things go really bad someone’s liable if something doesn’t work. … One of the challenges of open source and really the challenge with the open source business model is: it’s hard to replicate that ecosystem of accountability and that guarantee.

Perhaps we can forgive Bill an innocent mistake, given that he is relatively new on the Microsoft campus and has not experienced the recurring wrath from customers, torches and pitchforks in hand, who resent the non-guarantees they have received. Some instances over the ages from various news reports:

  • Users of PhotoDraw were abandoned, and all the intellectual property they have created cannot be migrated to another graphics editing program because of the undocumented and proprietary file format.
  • Longtime FrontPage experts who have relied on Linux server extensions cannot get version 2003 capabilities unless they switch to Windows hosting.
  • Vista users cannot (out of the box) restore backups made on XP using the ever popular ntbackup utility, and even the work-around causes massive headaches.

So if we forgive Bill this one lapse of insight, then perhaps we must forgive the other, wherein he crookedly claims that the Open Source model does not provide an ecosystem of accountability. His claim is odd to my ear … I have yet to hear of a Linux user who cannot edit old graphics files, use new features on existing architectures, or restore their backups.

Hilf’s assertion centers around the hot-line — who are you going to call when something doesn’t work. But he ignores the more pertinent notion that the degree of support you need is inversely proportionate to the problems causes by the product. Phrased less politely, people need to buy Microsoft support because Microsoft gives them more problems with which to contend.

There are two marketing angles in my missive, and both affect brand acceptance:

Performance: Detroit made crappy cars in the 1970’s, and Japan stole the hearts of American drivers by not. In the long term, people adopt solutions that perform. When Microsoft makes a bad product or provides limited support, people seek alternatives such as Open Source. Today, Linux has the brand cache of Toyota, while Microsoft’s brand resembles that of the Ford Pinto.

Credibility: When Microsoft allows an senior manager to utter nonsense in public — verbiage that rapidly shows a lack of understanding about their market, their customer motivations, and reality in general — then Microsoft’s credibility suffers. Credibility is a foundational element to all brands, and after Hilf’s interview, they have less than ever.

November 6, 2007

G-overnment

Google’s announcement of their mobile platform sucked all the wind out of both the mobile and open source markets this week … and it is only Tuesday!

I won’t argue the good news. The mobile operating system market is so disjointed that it makes Pakistan politics look well ordered by comparison. The dysfunction is due to the primary proprietary plays (Windows and Symbian) not opening the stacks enough to allow significant innovation on the application front. Google’s choice of Linux will drive not only adoption of G-phones, but of all Linux-based handsets, and thus a thriving ecosystem.

This is a cascade event.

Obscured this week was a little discussed news report on the antithesis of unrestrained capitalism, namely government. In particular, a report showing that the U.S. Federal government is adopting Open Source almost as fast as it is gobbling my tax dollars. I sure hope their IT savings from Open Source results in my tax rate being lowered. I’m also hoping to win the lottery and be elected planetary emperor. I suspect I’ll be disappointed on all three fronts.

The survey was conducted by a group with selfish interests, namely the Federal Open Source Alliance. Giving them the benefit of doubts and assuming the survey was not rigged, we see 50+% of federal agencies already using Open Source, and 71% believing in the benefits. This is a continuation of trends noted in the past, but now with majority support. This is beyond any tipping point stage and into the run-away scenario.

Interesting yet unsurprising was that 88% of the respondents in intelligence agencies thought Open Source brought operational benefits. This is interesting because of the long and arcane history of security certification systems government has inflicted upon the industry in order to assure that secrets remain secret (well, except for those leaked by nefarious congressional critters). What makes it unsurprising is the active participation of various “spook” agencies in bullet-proofing Linux.

Most telling though is the difference between the aggregate Federal IT mindset and those who have actually dabbled in Open Source. While 71% of the D.C. geeks believe in Open Source benefits, 90% who have deployed Open Source have the same beliefs. In other words, trying is believing.

For the market in general, this means little. Though the government spends a ton of (my) money on IT, it influences little of IT outside of their own shops. However, if government adopts Open Source on the desktop, they may well have a huge public impact as their external miscommunication (i.e., spreadsheets, word processing documents, etc.) must be contended with. If Federal IT loves and believes in Open Source in general, they will eventually try it on the desktop. It has already occurred on the small scale (cities) and overseas, but a big American deployment will begin the cascade.

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