Apollo, we have a problem
Funny how my mind works. When I read that Adobe was releasing an early version of their Apollo application platform, all I could think of was how the original Apollo of Mount Olympus fame spread a virus. The fact that Apollo killed a Python in Delphi only adds a multitude of unintentional software humor.
From a technical standpoint, Apollo is interesting, though from a marketing standpoint it is of questionable survivability. Technically, Adobe is simply making web applications standalone desktop apps by localizing HTML, Flash, and other common web goodies into a self-contained, platform-agnostic system. Pretty slick approach given that people already developing web-based applications have low learning curves to create portable desktop apps.
However, the application development heavens are an unforgiving place. The gods therein (Microsoft, Java, LAMP, etc.) are ill tempered and unlikely to yield followers. At this point in development theology, there are too many gods, mortals that are too devout, and few new disciples to whom evangelism will work.
Rare is a development organization that can afford to change their technical base. Small shops cannot afford the learning curve to adopt new development languages, and large ones have implemented long-term platform strategies for which they are loath to abandon. However, change does happen. Not long ago Java was a toy, and yet it has become a dominant force in server-side and web based enterprise application and e-commerce development. Microsoft still holds the power on PCs as Windows still dominates the desktop. Thus Apollo will have to ride in the sky a long time before finding a landing place on technocrat terra firma.
The base question can be summed up "Does the market need yet another development platform?" Granted, cross platform agility within a familiar framework and end user interface is compelling. But the switching cost is high, and the non-Windows installed base is small. Adobe may be laying an egg in hopes that the chickens will soon arrive. That however is a questionable strategy.
This situation should be familiar to anyone in technology marketing. Adobe is faced with creating a following within a saturated market (the software development market is by quirky definition saturated from the start as anyone who wants to develop software must either know and love a programming language and platform, or they must careful pick one appropriate for their product). Adobe has several things going for them:
- They are repackaging well known and well loved development tools that already have followings.
- They have a compelling cross platform story for new projects.
- Adobe is a well liked and trusted vendor (unlike the Evil Empire ).
Yet they face significant barriers to entry:
- High switching costs for most technology buyer genotypes.
- Compelling competitive ROI for Open Source alternatives.
- Innovative competitors like Brainwave who offer the same gestalt.
- Fear of vendor lock-in amplified by Open Source alternatives.
Adobe has few options in acquiring tractions aside from a market seeding campaign, and ploys to CTOs about extending their existing in-house expertise in web technologies to work on desktop solutions. If Apollo is to fly, it will have to whip the chariot horses hard and beware the jealousy of the other gods.
