Marketing Memos

Funny how my mind works.  When I read that Adobe was releasing an early version of their Apollo application platform, all I could think of was how the original Apollo of Mount Olympus fame spread a virus. The fact that Apollo killed a Python in Delphi only adds a multitude of unintentional software humor.

From a technical standpoint, Apollo is interesting, though from a marketing standpoint it is of questionable survivability.  Technically,  Adobe is simply making web applications standalone desktop apps by localizing HTML, Flash, and other common web goodies into a self-contained, platform-agnostic system.  Pretty slick approach given that people already developing web-based applications have low learning curves to create portable desktop apps.

However, the application development heavens are an unforgiving place.  The gods therein (Microsoft, Java, LAMP, etc.) are ill tempered and unlikely to yield followers.  At this point in development theology, there are too many gods, mortals that are too devout, and few new disciples to whom evangelism will work.

Rare is a development organization that can afford to change their technical base.  Small shops cannot afford the learning curve to adopt new development languages, and large ones have implemented long-term platform strategies for which they are loath to abandon.  However, change does happen.  Not long ago Java was a toy, and yet it has become a dominant force in server-side and web based enterprise application and e-commerce development.  Microsoft still holds the power on PCs as Windows still dominates the desktop.  Thus Apollo will have to ride in the sky a long time before finding a landing place on technocrat terra firma.

The base question can be summed up "Does the market need yet another development platform?"  Granted, cross platform agility within a familiar framework and end user interface is compelling.  But the switching cost is high, and the non-Windows installed base is small.  Adobe may be laying an egg in hopes that the chickens will soon arrive.  That however is a questionable strategy.

This situation should be familiar to anyone in technology marketing.  Adobe is faced with creating a following within a saturated market (the software development market is by quirky definition saturated from the start as anyone who wants to develop software must either know and love a programming language and platform, or they must careful pick one appropriate for their product).  Adobe has several things going for them:

• They are repackaging well known and well loved development tools that already have followings.
• They have a compelling cross platform story for new projects.
• Adobe is a well liked and trusted vendor (unlike the Evil Empire ).

Yet they face significant barriers to entry:

• High switching costs for most technology buyer genotypes.
• Compelling competitive ROI for Open Source alternatives.
• Innovative competitors like Brainwave who offer the same gestalt.
• Fear of vendor lock-in amplified by Open Source alternatives.

Adobe has few options in acquiring tractions aside from a market seeding campaign, and ploys to CTOs about extending their existing in-house expertise in web technologies to work on desktop solutions.  If Apollo is to fly, it will have to whip the chariot horses hard and beware the jealousy of the other gods.

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Having recently earned my admission into the Sons of the American Revolution, and thus having a genetic predisposition for radical change, I have to temper myself whenever I see signs of subversion afoot.  The technology industry never sees a week pass without InfoWorld or eWeek breathlessly proclaiming a new technology that will alter the fundament of IT.  And in most instances we are wrong.

So when I started to see bubbles about Linux desktops finally gaining traction, I gathered many grains of salt.  Desktop Linux demand has been predicted as often as Ted Kennedy’s sobriety, and with as many proofs of such.

But in the last two weeks we have seen Dell, HP and Novell all utter words of growing demand.  As languid as these may have seen, we must pay attention to when two of the biggest box vendors, and the Linux desktop distro king all make moves.

Dell admitted to certifying Novell’s desktop Linux for their machinery.  Their decision to proceed was based on "overwhelming" demand expressed by their customers on the Dell IdeaStorm web site.  The IdeaStorm site is an example of smart inbound technology marketing.  By soliciting ideas, and having the wisdom of crowds prioritize these suggestions, Dell is actively and automatically discovering where untapped market opportunities lay.  They are also discovering technology buying trends in their earliest phase, and thus will
outmaneuver their competitors.

Hewlett Packard has evidently identified the same latent Linux desktop demand, anticipating a critical mass in the near future.  Though not yet committing to (again) preloading desktops with Linux, HP has witnessed a surge in buzz over the last six months.  They sense demand overseas — primarily in Asia where one client ordered 30,000 Linux loaded laptops — but in all likelihood this will cause such systems to leak into the North American market.  They also note that most of the demand is arising from enterprises, which makes sense as the potential for IT cost savings is greatest there.  For now they are dancing Dell’s dance, and certifying various machines to run Linux desktops.

Novell, who has a deeply vested interest in promoting Linux on the desktop, announced that they are re-raising the
Thin Client banner ( Oh no! Not again. Will this beast not die? ).  Novell (and SuSE before them) had well honed tools for creating custom bootable Linux images and automating network server deployment.  This has been applied to the desktop, and opens a new opportunities for enterprises that Windows-based thin clients could not.  Specifically enterprises can now whittle
a desktop down to the essential software required by employees and at per-set price points that give Bill Gates night shivers.

Desktop Armageddon is not yet upon us, but one can’t help but believe the winds of change are blowing.

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