Life Beyond Linux
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I was recently invited by Novell to write on the topic of how Open Source makes a difference in IT beyond just Linux, and beyond just saving budget. I had foreseen the day when not only other Open Source projects became important to enterprises, but also the very methodologies of Open Source would have implications. CIOs have now confirmed my
prognostications and are adopting all forms of Open Source products and mentalities.
And as usual, the news is beginning to bear witness to these not-so-subtle shifts in market forces. Two news items in recent weeks speak to how the market is morphing.
First and most obvious is how IBM is pushing the Open Source envelope by identifying eight separate areas of software in which IBM wants to drive adoption and innovation using Open Source. IBM has been a leading force behind Linux and Eclipse, securing growing dominance in the two cores of IT — infrastructure and development. Now IBM wants to expand on these themes by adopting and promoting projects for client-side middleware, development tools, Web application servers, data
servers, systems management, hardware, and even grid computing ( say bye-bye to Sun’s rent-a-grid ). By driving broader adoption, IBM is effectively reducing (perhaps even eliminating) preference for proprietary solutions, and thus competitive
products. The differentiator for IT technology vendors then becomes services, the area where IBM established their dominance years ago.
But IBM’s enlightened self interest is incomplete by itself. The whole world does not buy from IBM. Now a
survey indicated that channels are profiting from Linux and other Open Source tools, which makes the growing dominance of Open Source more complete. Channel players working with Linux are profitable (which one might find to be an odd result for a commodity play), and by focusing on core infrastructure issues like the OS and application server.
But most compelling was the insight that Windows accounted for half of operating systems replaced by Linux. Other reports had shown Linux replacing UNIX, since the management differences between the two operating systems was minimal. But those same reports said that for new server
deployments, Linux and Windows were in a tie race.
This new study now concludes that Windows is actually being replaced by Linux — a shift from stalemate to loss for Redmond. Why the channel is leading the replacement shift is interesting in as much as the channel typically servers
small and midsized businesses, ones who are not wed to a technology through a consecrated IT staff. Contrast this to large IT shops who are adopting Linux for the sheer horsepower-per-buck invested. Adoption is coming from above and below, out of different motivations. Together these factors will further compel and consolidate the market.
Windows as a driving force in the data center is on the leading edge of
demise.
