Virtually disappearing hardware
I am not the only industry observer to foretell the coming commoditization of server hardware. Many pundents have noticed that servers with PC origins have dwindling differentiation (Sun’s protests not withstanding).
While Linux and Windows sped the rate of WinTel/LinTel server commoditization, the ever shifting sands of tribal partnering slowed this process. This due in part to the persistent need for cluster or grid specific technologies to get commodity servers to scale for the more mammoth jobs found in IT and high performance computing (HPC).
This may be ending.
One of Silicon Strategies clients is Virtual Iron. Just out from under stealth mode, these folks are doing something heretofore thought impossible. They are gluing together multiple physical servers to look like one really huge x86 server, all without modifying Linux or requiring specialized applications (massive disclaimers apply, but are at best trivial).
Until now, x86 server hardware enjoyed moderate protection from full commoditization. Customers would buy from select vendors for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was the keiretsu of partners that provided an complete cluster or grid solution. Virtual Iron may well eliminate the need for such strategic alliances, and in turn drive x86 servers into true “commodity” status, where the primary differentiation is price.
Needless to say, HP, Dell and IBM should not be happy about this.
How can this be? The answer lies in the elimination of specialized software and hardware typically required to scale a cluster or a grid. Clusters require mass provisioning schemes, outboard load balancing tools, and other accessories to work. Grids require applications to be “grid aware” to make use of distributed resources. Customers bought into a fixed set of vendors to avoid the unpleasant side effects of “non-standard” implementations (a term which, if viewed in a cynical way, is an oxymoron). This allows server vendors to charge a moderate premium.
This may be coming to an end. The Virtual Iron product allows vanilla servers and blades to be combined like so much raw ore. Legos. Tinker toys. Bits and pieces that when bolted together create bigger and bigger virtual computers. No provisioning software needed (one instance of Linux per primary application would do for most shops). No grid-aware applications (any application that scales on an SMP system will scale on Virtual Iron). An if you run out of horsepower, bolt in another server and press the power button - it will be added hot to the virtual server.
And here is the kicker: Virtual Iron is not picky about matched components. All the blades in a rack do not need to be identical. Their can be different memory sizes, different CPU counts, and different clock speeds. Virtual Iron can balance loading appropriately.
If Virtual Iron grabs market share, the lack of need for hardware differentiation will drive commoditization further. Several vendors have produced “PC’s on a chip”, and used them as building blocks for specialized supercomputers. With Virtual Iron, we are a stones throw away from using the same reduced hardware as the foundation for “personal supercomputers”.
HP, Dell and IBM should be worried. By diminishing the value of the standing cluster/grid keiretsu, Virtual Iron jeopardizes the last remaining differentiation for x86 servers. Vendors will have to shift more towards standardization, more towards miniaturization, and more towards price (and margin) cutting. Good for the consumer, bad for the vendors.
Server makers should also be fearful of the lost revenue from the end of “over scaling”. Every systems administrator on the planet overscales every server in their data center to meet peak loads. But it is a rare day when all the servers reach peak loading at the same time. Virtual Iron allows for the creation of more than one “virtual computer”, and allows hardware to be shifted between them - hot, without bringing Linux or the application down. A savvy shop could avoid overscaling all their servers, and thus spend less on hardware, driving down HP’s, IBM’s, and Dell’s revenues.
And it gets worse. Since Virtual Iron is indifferent to the capacity of the servers being added, and allows servers with differing configurations to be merged together at will, upgrade demand is reduced. IT shops will have less need to decommission or repurpose old servers. Instead, they just add them to their virtual computers and use their hardware until it dies. Less volume for HP, IBM and Dell.
But, that is not the end of the story. Assuming that Linux can scale beyond current limitations, the Virtual Iron technology may well cause erosion of high end systems (are you listening, Sun? ). If in the near future one could bolt together a string of Opteron systems that (as far as Linux is concerned) looks like a really big SMP box (say, rivaling Sun’s top Sun Fire servers ), then margins for top-shelf servers erode as well. If one can install Linux on a 128 way virtual Opteron server, and you can compete HP, IBM and white-box vendors against one another, Sun adds no value. Nor do IBM zSeries systems.
So, where will this all end? True commoditization. As long as the servers or blades being added to a Virtual Iron environment are x86 systems (64-bit is coming), then they can be used. Since I/O and storage is virtualized, there will be little need for internal differentiation. The final evolution may well be the reduction of a “server” or “blade” to a chip with an InfiniBand or multi-gigabit Ethernet port, and nothing else. With an utter lack of differentiation, “servers” could be manufactured en masse, sold in six-packs, and have prices fall through the floor.
Let’s hope.
